Can the U.S. Outpace China in AI and Stop a Chip War Over Taiwan? Experts Clash Over the High-Stakes Semiconductor Race

As tensions between China and Western nations continue to rise, academics and industry leaders have increasingly focused on China’s technological advancements. One of the most critical technologies in this 21st-century rivalry is the semiconductor, essential for powering everything from generative AI to autonomous weapons systems through advanced graphics processing units (GPUs).

On May 14, a virtual debate hosted by Open to Debate and Johns Hopkins University brought together a community of experts and thought leaders to tackle a pressing geopolitical question: Can the U.S. outpace China in AI by developing and controlling chip technologies?

The discussion centered on the evolving relationship between China and the U.S., recent advances in AI, and Washington’s ongoing semiconductor export restrictions. These restrictions, intended to preserve U.S. technological dominance, have also pressured China to accelerate domestic chip development to achieve self-reliance in the global tech market.

Export Controls: A Strategic Necessity?

Supporters of U.S. chip restrictions debated necessary measures like the ban on Nvidia’s advanced AI chips for Chinese companies, which they see as important for keeping America’s competitive advantage in the global AI market.

“That’s the purpose of these controls: to slow down China’s advancement so that the US and companies from our allied countries and our partners can take the lead,” said Lindsay Gorman, Managing Director and Senior Fellow of the German Marshall Fund’s Technology Program. “There is an advantage to a head start.”

Beginning in 2022, the Biden administration implemented strict guidelines on chip exports to China to slow its technological progress. Some reports suggest that China is progressing quickly in several critical technologies, potentially surpassing the U.S. in certain areas. In some cases, analysts estimate that China may be months ahead in development, raising concerns about the long-term implications for U.S. leadership and competitiveness in emerging global industries.

“The goal of the controls has never really been clearly stated. What I hear is that the goal is to throw sand in the machine in China — to slow China down in developing AI,” said Paul Triolo, Senior Vice President and Partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group. “Most experts believe Chinese companies are only three months behind U.S. leaders in developing advanced AI models.”

The Risk of Restrictions

Critics, however, warn that the U.S. strategy could backfire. Export controls may provide only temporary benefits while accelerating China’s push toward semiconductor self-sufficiency.

“CEOs like Bill Gates and Jensen Huang of Nvidia have both said that what we’re doing is the Chinese will go on without us,” said Susan Thornton, Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center and Former Diplomat. “We’ve massively incentivized their innovation ecosystem to develop all kinds of technologies, and we see that with Deep Seek.”

Indeed, China has responded by investing billions in its chip industry. Companies like Huawei are taking the race in strides and have signaled to the U.S. that they will produce 7-nanometer chips with or without the U.S.’s help.

“I think the main critique of this would be that. What we’ve done is we’ve massively incentivized a very dynamic Chinese innovation ecosystem to come up with all kinds of ways to get around this.  And they’re working very hard on indigenous innovation,” notes Thornton.

(Image Credit: Will Kirk (@willkirkphotography) Courtesy of Open to Debate)

To date, China has invested $15.3 billion in quantum technology compared to the U.S.’s $3.7 billion, highlighting the gap in technology investment priorities. As of February 2022, a RAND Corporation report comparing the U.S. and Chinese industrial bases regarding advancements in quantum technology emphasized that Chinese efforts are primarily concentrated in government-funded laboratories, which have made rapid progress, giving China the lead in quantum technology.

Outside of quantum technology, China has also declared interest in brain computer interfaces (BCIs) and will compete for global dominance. 

What if China takes Taiwan?

The debate also touched on Taiwan’s geopolitical tensions, as Taiwan is home to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s leading producer of advanced chips.

“The hardware base for AI resides in Taiwan, a hundred miles off the Chinese coast in a very narrow strip. I’ve been there, it’s amazing, but it’s now in the middle of this contest. And the risks around conflict over Taiwan are heightened by the controls and the focus on AI dominance,” says Triolo.

Thornton adds, to this point, “It’s been mentioned that Taiwan, the most sensitive issue in US-China relations, has now been dragged right into the middle of this AI issue because they’re the place that produces all the cutting-edge chips that we’re trying to control.”

”If we don’t get our hands on AI controls between the two biggest AI powers, you know, who knows who’s going to be controlling and stopping AI from inflicting major damage on humanity,” ends Thornton.

The U.S. is doing its best to scale chip production within the U.S. and is persuading TSMC to produce and build in Arizona. Companies like Apple are the largest buyers globally, while TSMC has committed $65 billion in Arizona to build three advanced semiconductor fabrication plants. TSMC’s new U.S. plant is unlikely to get the most advanced chip technology before factories in Taiwan.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. CEO and Chairman C.C. Wei said at the National Taiwan University event  on January 16, “Every step requires a permit, and after the permit is approved, it takes at least twice as long as in Taiwan.”

Striking a Balance Between Control and Competitiveness

Both sides agreed that the U.S. and China should consider ethical standards in AI development. The challenge is what type of standards can be agreed upon, as both countries politically look at human rights and freedom of speech very differently. However, both heavily rely on each other’s supply chains to manufacture and distribute consumer goods and technologies.

“I think most importantly is that the controls have really highlighted two various sensitive geopolitical issues. One is that they’ve precluded so far any real collaboration between the US and China on the critical issue of AI safety. And this is happening just as we’re on the verge of a key inflection point, the development of artificial general intelligence,” says Triolo.

While Thornton highlights the political differences, “I mean, clearly the Chinese has a different governing system than ours.”

“A government trying to remake the world in its own autocratic image, it’s hard not to think of these things through an ideological light,” adds Gorman.

With Will Hurd, Former U.S. Representative from Texas and CIA Officer, clearly stating 18 minutes into the debate, “ Having this debate about chip controls, I want the US and China, and when I say China, I actually mean the Chinese government. Let’s make that very clear. The problem with the Chinese government, not the Chinese people, not Chinese culture, definitely not Chinese Americans.”

“So when I say China, I mean the Chinese government. I want us to be frenemies. Let’s work on things we can work together on. We compete on things that we can compete on, but that means you’re doing it based on the rules that you’ve already accepted and said you’re gonna agree to,” says Hurd.

Hurd comments on how trust is paramount in the relationship between China and the U.S., saying,  “And if you violate those rules, guess what? You can’t trust people.” At the same time, comparing AI to advanced nuclear technology. “ I held the first hearings on AI in Congress. I’ve always talked about artificial intelligence, the equivalent. Of nuclear fission.”

An AI Future

The debate concluded without a clear resolution, but both sides acknowledged the need for cautious cooperation between the U.S. and China. The risk of economic or military conflict looms, potentially destabilizing global tech markets.

“And of course, there’s the huge cost that’s just been alluded to, which is if we don’t get our hands on AI controls between the two biggest AI powers, who knows who’s going to be controlling and stopping AI from inflicting major damage on humanity,”  says Thornton. “It’s an area where the US and China need to cooperate.”

Can the U.S. win the race for AI supremacy? The road ahead may be long, with tensions between nations rising and myriad restrictions in place. However, with thoughtful diplomacy, cultural understanding, and strategic leadership, the U.S. and China may succeed in navigating the present cold war of ideas, without igniting a hot one.

Editor’s Note: This article has been corrected from a previous version, which mistakenly attributed quotes from two individuals who were not direct participants in the recent panel discussion.