John Donvan:

Hi, everybody. Welcome to Open to Debate. I'm John Donvan, and I wanna ask you to ponder this: where would you rather live if you had to choose one of these, New York or Florida? You know, a full decade ago, we did a debate where the motion was for a better future, live in a red state, and what were the issues argued over then? Um, well, it was taxes and services and safety net and lifestyle and culture and values. It was a pretty good argument. I- I recommend listening to it.

But we figured at Open to Debate 10 years on, a lot has changed and it's time for an update. But let's get more specific about it this time. So given that Florida, once considered a swing state but definitely gotten more and more red, and New York, and when you think of this blue state, you think of New York and you think of its policies, which definitely remain blue, we have chosen to make those our two example states.

So here's the question we're asking: is Florida eating New York's lunch? Arguing that the answer is a definite yes, that Florida is eating New York's lunch, conservative political commentator and president of the Manhattan Institute, Reihan Salam. Reihan, thanks so much for joining us at Open to Debate.

Reihan Salam:

Thanks very much for having me, I- I really appreciate it.

John Donvan:

And our second debater, who will be answering no, that Florida is not eating New York's lunch, the former Mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio. Bill de Blasio, thanks so much for joining us on Open to Debate.

Bill de Blasio:

Great to be here, John, thanks for this chance.

John Donvan:

So what I find so interesting that we have two New York-born debaters. Uh, Bill, you were born in Manhattan, um, like I was, and Reihan, you were born in Brooklyn like my dad was, but we're gonna be arguing about a competition for, uh, b- between two states for- for- for general appeal and, uh, governance effectiveness. Uh, so I wanna get straight to it and ask each of you to take a few minutes to tell us in a more formal way why you're arguing yes or why you are arguing no.

And Reihan, you are up first. Once again, your answer to the question, yes, Florida is eating New York's lunch. Tell us why.

Reihan Salam:

Let me begin by saying I was born and raised in New York, it is my home, and I love it dearly. But despite New York's immense advantages, Florida is eating our lunch. I wanna be very clear, I am not claiming that the Sunshine State is the best option for every family, or that Ron DeSantis is always right and Kathy Hochul is always wrong. Like all sane people, I would much prefer a slice of cheesecake to a slice of key lime pie.

What I am saying is that Florida is badly out competing New York. For a decade, New York's leaders have been asleep at the switch. Even now, there is this delusion that Wall Street, big tech, and cultural cache mean that Gotham doesn't have to fight for talent like lesser places, but those days are over for three main reasons.

First, New York's superpower was once its ability to create opportunity for its working class while welcoming newcomers. But today, New York is driving away striving families while Florida is rolling out the red carpet. Consider the huge gap in housing prices. The median home price in Manhattan is twice the median price for a larger, more modern home in Miami. Places like Orlando and Tampa are much more affordable. So why the difference? New York's zoning laws make it obscenely expensive to build new housing. Florida makes it much easier for developers to meet rising demand from newcomers fleeing New York and other less-affordable states, and like it or not, affordability matters.

Second, New York City's greatest asset, its incredible density, is in danger of becoming a liability. The reason the streets of New York are so vibrant is that the city is tightly packed with creative people. That means you have enough customers to support off-Broadway theater, comedy clubs, and ethnic cuisine from all over. But if you're going to pack people together, you need to keep a handle on noise, congestion, and crime. Florida's big cities are actually not safer than New York's. The difference is that in Florida, people typically live in less dense neighborhoods. In other words, New Yorkers depend on a competent government to stop the guy yelling at my toddlers on the B69 bus. Floridians can just hop in their SUVs. I personally prefer the New York way of life, but when public safety starts to slip in densities like ours, people start rushing for the exits.

Third, we all know New Yorkers pay much more in taxes than Floridians, but the bigger problem for New York is that higher taxes aren't buying better results. Take public education. Pre-COVID, New York was spending roughly $26,000 per K-12 student. In Florida, spending was $10,000, or less than half as much. So did New York's first-in-the-nation spending buy first-in-the-nation results? Not by a long shot.

In 2010, the Urban Institute ranked reading and math performance in the 50 states, taking into account differences in student characteristics. Florida came in first on reading and math results for fourth graders. New York was 23rd in reading and 39th in math. The reason is the public schools in Florida do a much better job of boosting the achievement of students of color and English language learners. That's part of why tens of thousands of Black families have left New York for Florida and Texas over the past decade. They have a right to good schools, and New York is not delivering.

I know New York can once again be a beacon of opportunity for all in my bones, and in the age of remote work, we can't afford to be complacent. When skilled professionals and working people can work from anywhere, they're going to work from places that actually work hard to attract them, to keep them. But until New York's leaders reckon with Florida's rise, we won't do what it takes to compete and win.

John Donvan:

Thank you, Reihan. So that's the argument for the, ans- answering the question yes, and now we're gonna hear the argument for answering the question no. Bill de Blasio, the former Mayor of New York, to say no, Florida is not eating New York's lunch. Tell us why.

Bill de Blasio:

An emphatic no, John. Thank you for the opportunity to be here. Um, let me start with a story and it's very personal. Over 100 years ago, my grandfather, Giovanni, and my grandmother, Anna, left small, poor towns in Southern Italy. They came to this place, and the opportunity here, the fact that this was a place that was open to all, afforded them the chance to live the New York dream, the American dream. They had three daughters, all of whom went to college, including my mother, Maria. And their grandson became mayor of this great city.

This city hasn't changed who we are. We have challenges, undoubtedly, but the essence of New York remains, it's eternal. We're a place that rewards creativity, entrepreneurship, energy, we foster it. We're a city for everyone, we're a city that believes and embraces diversity, we are not scared of people with different opinions, we wanna respect every choice in the range of beliefs that people have. And that makes us vibrant, that makes us strong, that makes us a place that creative people want to be, and that's even more true in a globalized world. New York City is the ideal global city.

Uh, I respect for sure our friends and colleagues in Florida, I've visited Florida several times, I've enjoyed my visits. I'm not here, uh, to be negative to another state. I'm here to say that all New Yorkers should stand up and proudly say, uh, "This place is eternal in our strength." Look at what we went through in our greatest challenge, arguably. We have had so many, uh, 9/11 and- and the Great Recession and Hurricane Sandy, but our greatest challenge recently that affected literally every New Yorker was COVID.

We at once point were the epicenter, and it was extremely painful. The epicenter in this whole nation. Did New Yorkers give up? Did they turn against each other? No, as- as we could see so many times in the past, but I think in many ways this was New York's finest hour, New Yorkers supported each other, they showed incredible compassion, incredible energy and bravery, a kind of resilience that is unmatched in the nation.

That speaks to the character of our people, and in the end, what makes New York great is our people, this extraordinary mix of people. It's arguably the most diverse place on Earth, and yet it works in so many ways. Every part of the country has strengths, but no place has this extraordinary population, which includes, in my view, uh, the finest workforce in America, the hardest workers in America.

Uh, I appreciate my colleague Reihan and his view, but if he wants to know what our tax dollars are buying, it's buying the finest police force in America, the finest fire department in America. A place that provides, even though it's imperfect, the most extensive mass transit of any city by far. And by the way, we don't want people in SUVs and- and experiencing urban sprawl, we want people in cities that actually are part of how we save this Earth from climate change, and we need exactly the things that we have here in New York City.

We've got more work to do, I'm the first to say it, but I wanna give you one example that's extraordinary. After all of the pain, all the setbacks of COVID, just three years ago around this time, last year New York City received 57 million tourists. That says something about how much people want to be here. They wanna be here to live, they wanna be here to create, but they also wanna be here to visit, in numbers that are approaching our all-time high. The last year, uh, before COVID in my administration, 67 million tourists. It is now projected we will surpass that in the next year or two.

The- the price of housing, yes, the price of housing is high and there's a lot to be done, but it also says something that the property values in the city are so high, that the rents are high, because people want to be here. Now, our job is to continually create more housing, I agree, and that's what my administration tried to do, and I know that's what Mayor Adams is doing. But in the end, a place that has the challenge of too many people wanting to be here, that's a great starting point for a great future.

I have to tell you, the future is in those places that will embrace everyone. Uh, I look at our incredible economy, it's extraordinarily diverse, our tech sector was growing up through COVID, continues to, our life sciences center and all the traditional industries, finance, media, uh, cultural fields.

People want to be here because they feel safe from extremism, they feel safe from intolerance. Yes, we always have work to do on our quality of life, and thankful it is improving and the city is getting safer, we have the NYPD facts to prove it, but one that we know that is profoundly different between New York and Florida, Florida is going in the wrong direction unfortunately. When it comes to MAGA extremism, Florida is choosing a path of banning books and disallowing a woman's right to choose. Florida is turning against trans youth. Florida is a place that a lot of smart, creative, entrepreneurial people are gonna say, "This isn't for me anymore. This doesn't fit what I believe." And in fact, you're gonna start to see people leave Florida and return to New York because it's a place they can believe in and feel comfortable in.

So I think in the end, New York City is a place of greatness and always has been. I think New York City will be greater even more in the future. I think that one day in this country, I truly believe we'll improve our immigration laws and you're gonna see people from all over this world returning in great numbers to live and help us build our community, but we've got plenty of home-grown New Yorkers right now who are doing that work. And if you walk in these streets, if you go to our restaurants, if you look at our businesses, they are thriving, it is visible, the vitality you can feel, and this is, again, the- three years after we were laid as low as any city could possibly be in this country. We're back and strong, and we'll be stronger still in the next few years.

John Donvan:

This is Open to Debate, more when we return. Welcome back to Open to Debate, I'm your host John Donvan. Let's return to our discussion.

I do wanna go to the quantitative analysis that you brought to this, um, Reihan, but I wanna start with the qualitative, uh, because I think it's the greatest, um, sort of ph- philosophical challenge to- to your argument at this point. That in, compared to New York, Florida is- is not so good when it comes to the values of openness, uh, um, diversity, et cetera, as, uh, Bill as been saying. So what's your response to that?

Reihan Salam:

So one thing I'll say is that if you want diversity, if you want a flourishing place, you really do want density. Um, you said that I was concerned about overcrowding, but just to be very, very clear, I actually believe that density is a superpower. But here's what density does, here's what it means: what density means is that your margin of error is smaller than it otherwise would be. If you look at the densest cities in the rich world, you've got Tokyo, you've got (laughing) Hong Kong, you've got Singapore, you've got places where the level of congestion and violent crime is just dramatically lower than what it is here.

Florida, uh, you know, you can object. I said very explicitly, you don't have to agree with Ron DeSantis on X, Y, or Z. If you're a recent immigrant, if you're a working-class person, okay, from the Rust Belt, you're from the Bronx, and if you're looking for a place to build a life, I'm sorry to say that those are problems that matter a heck of a lot to people who have that choice, people who aren't actually on the edge of making ends meet.

And actually, New York City is doing a pretty good job of keeping rich people. A lot of people who will have this debate will say, "We're driving out rich people, we're driving out rich people," and sure, we're dr- we're driving out some, but actually we're really losing strivers, we're really losing working and middle class people. What's happening is the gentrification of New York.

John Donvan:

So- So, Reihan, is your framing of it that way in response to my question about extremism, et cetera, your, is your point being there are other things of value that are of more value to what you describe as striving families?

Reihan Salam:

Y- y- yeah, there's a-

John Donvan:

Okay.

Reihan Salam:

There's an old saying, which goes, uh, you- you know, "It's a matter of show or tell," right? And there's a lot of tell in politics, but then the show is actually who is actually making opportunity available and accessible.

John Donvan:

Okay, let me take that back then to Bill de Blasio. You heard Reihan's response, uh, the- the thing that really matters to people who are trying to make it in this world are economic opportunity, that he says is- is just shrinking, h- h- housing being like the- the- the most, uh, prominent cause of that. P- potentially taxes as well are just shrinking for sort of what he calls striving families. And I think we know what he means by that, we mean not the billionaires, but we mean people who are- who are trying to make it, the- the- the, your- your grand- your grandparents from back then to now. So what's your response to that as- as a counter to the argument you were making?

Bill de Blasio:

I will respond to that, but I have to also respond w- with deepest respect for Reihan, you know, you very, John, you very clearly said let's speak to the question of intolerance and exclusion that pervades Florida. I really didn't hear an answer, I heard him say, "Well, that's true-

John Donvan:

Well, I, what- what I heard was a-

Bill de Blasio:

(laughs).

John Donvan:

I heard him do a pivot. I heard him do a pivot, and I'm-

Bill de Blasio:

Right. But more, uh... Obviously in Florida today, unfortunately not just via Ron DeSantis, via the legislature of Florida, and beyond, that same intolerance is rampant. That is not welcome mat. And- and if one makes an argument that because in recent years Florida had some years where people went there, God bless them, you know, good weather and other, uh, good factors, it does not say things are static.

In a world where people of all classes and all backgrounds want to be safe from intolerance and extremism, Florida is rolling up that w- welcome mat constantly, and they're saying, "You don't belong here." And that's a lot of different kinds of people. Talk to women who just received the news that their governor signed a six-week abortion ban, uh, for- for millions of women in Florida, they're gonna be asking the question whether this is the state for them going forward.

So I think there's a lot more here than just cost of living. If you wanna talk about our opportunity, there is no place in the United States of America with so much concentrated opportunity, and that is why people continue to come here even with overly restrictive, uh, immigration laws. They come here from all around the world, certainly you see people streaming in from all over the country, of all classes, all backgrounds, because whatever your interest is, whatever your field is, the opportunity in New York is unparalleled.

And it's also not just about the numerical opportunity, it is the meaning of that opportunity. People who succeed in New York are able to do things on a much bigger scale, and they know it. An incredible statistic from the New York Times just a few weeks back, you know, there's been lot of concern about some millionaires leaving, going to Florida and other places, fair concern, but here's what the Times told us. In 2020, there were 70,000 millionaires in New York City, 70,000. One year later, there were 80,000. Because we grow wealth here too, there's so much opportunity and there's so many of the kinds of people who want to, whether they're a cab driver or, uh, someone who creates their own business, people who want to further themselves and their families, and can do it here.

Costs are higher than they should be, I agree. A lot more we need to do. But opportunity is the greatest in the country.

John Donvan:

But wh- when you say costs are higher than they should be, and when you refer to there are challenges that we have, of course, are- are you not making Reihan's point that it could be great, it could be even better, but it's not?

Bill de Blasio:

No, no, no, it's, it is supremely great and will be greater, and globalization has created a dynamic where New York City and all of our strengths are magnified many times over. So can you address cost? Sure you can. We did it in part by raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, we did it by giving families free pre-K and 3-K. You can do a lot to build more affordable housing.

By the way, I believe this is a city that we know how to build a lot of housing, and to do it quickly, do it densely. Much of the rest of the country will not accept tall buildings and dense housing.

Reihan Salam:

Uh, it's certainly true that globalization is changing things, uh, that technology is changing things. One of the big changes is that remote work has gone through a dramatic step increase. So, you know, for example, uh, if you look at the early 1990s, New York City alone represented about a third of all financial services jobs in the country. Today, we're approaching single digits.

That's not necessarily a bad thing, we want a more diversified economy, that's a good thing. What it means is that if you're in financial services, there was a time when the only place you could do it was in Wall Street, right? Now, you can do it in West Palm Beach, you can do it in Miami. Same thing with building a tech company. I might not love that, you might not love that, but that's the reality. The gap, to some degree, is smaller than it had been. I love New York, love being in the biggest, densest city in the country, but that is a reality that we have to reckon with.

And we can talk all about how great we are, I love patting myself on the back, I think New York City is great. I pay a lot of money to live here, uh, you know, and I'm- I'm blessed by the fact that my parents managed to buy a house in the 1980s. Had they not, I might not be here right now. That if you are not lucky, if you're not connected, if you don't luck into a rent-controlled apartment, if you don't know the right guy, if you don't the right palm to grease, then actually it is very hard for you as an outsider to make it here.

John Donvan:

Bill de Blasio, that sounds totally true.

Bill de Blasio:

I- I- I have to contest that. First- first of all-

John Donvan:

Please do.

Reihan Salam:

I welcome that.

Bill de Blasio:

The facts- the facts, uh, the facts are so rarely cited about what makes us different on affordability than any other city in the country. About 2.2 million New Yorkers live in rent-stabilized housing, where their rent never goes up in extreme ways, 2.2 million people. Uh, that doesn't get talked about enough. About 400,000 people live in public housing. It needs a lot of work and we have to do a lot to improve it, but they are protected from gentrification. We developed an affordable housing plan to reach another 700,000 people, making sure no one pays more than 30% of their income in rent. This city is doing more than any place to protect affordability. We've got a lot more to do.

Reihan Salam:

Versus what opportunities for housing in Florida?

Bill de Blasio:

Again, uh, the problem I have with, uh, the minute you talk about what Reihan pointed out before, urban sprawl, SUVs, taking away more and more of nature to build single-family homes, that is not sustainable, it's actually dangerous for our planet.

John Donvan:

One thing we are doing so far, per- perhaps to our regret, is we are conflating New York City with New York State. Reihan, talk about your argument at the state level. Because, you know, you get out of New York City, it's not so blue.

Reihan Salam:

This is a much larger conversation, John, but one thing that's happened is that outside of Downstate New York, uh, New York State is hollowing out. Policies that New York City, by virtue of its density and productivity, might be able to sustain have been fatal for Rochester, for Utica, for Syracuse, for any number of other cities, uh, in- in the rest of New York State.

Uh, despite the fact that, you know, these are regions that had big advantages, uh, these are regions that are seeing vast outmigration. And then, when you look at the suburban ring surrounding New York City, surrounding the Five Boroughs, the affordability problems are actually even more dire in those places. So if you wanna make a state to state comparison, one thing that's notable. In

Florida, there are five times the number of houses valued at less than $100,000 than above $750,000. Over 63% of the housing stock in Florida is priced below $300,000. And because if you have not been in a rent-stabilized, uh, apartment for the last 10, 15, 20 years, and thank goodness for those guys, they're very lucky, God bless 'em, but if you're someone who's new to the city as I imagine (laughing), you know, kind of a- a lot of rec- recent college graduates, recent immigrants, other recent striving people will find, uh, you're in a bad spot.

John Donvan:

Let's bring it to Bill now.

Bill de Blasio:

Florida is unfortunately pursuing a series of policies that are going to cause decline, because what they're saying to so many of their own people, let alone people from other places, is, "You don't belong here," or, "Your ma- your voice doesn't count," or, "There's something wrong with you."

Now, you can't just... You know, if, unless you happen to take a Marxian analysis here, you can't just talk about economics. You have to talk about cultural and political factors as well. Florida has some strengths, but Florida is rapidly and aggressively undermining those strengths.

Reihan SalamI do wanna-

John Donvan:

Uh, yeah.

Reihan Salam:

... make one- one point here.

John Donvan:

Please, go ahead.

Reihan Salam:

It is worth noting that New York City's workforce, as of early this year, 2023, shrank by 300,000 since 2020. Uh, and actually, when you look at where the job recovery has not happened, it's in construction, it's in retail, it's in leisure and hospitality. And, you now, why do I mention those fields? Those are the areas where actually working class immigrants, blue collar workers, have gained a foothold in this state.

And the fact that we still have this massive gap, uh, is something that I- I think is worth reflecting on. The workforce is quite strong, uh, but it's strong for a lot of reasons, and one big reason our workforce has shrunk so significantly is that there are a lot of people who have moved to Florida and elsewhere. And I think that it's worth noting.

Really strong workforce. Actually, by the way, maybe on a kinda- kinda average basis, there's certain kinds of people who might believe that pricing people out, driving people out who are at kind of the bottom of the income spectrum-

John Donvan:

So, yeah, so let me- let me-

Reihan Salam:

... makes the workforce stronger.

John Donvan:

Let me bring in a number.

Reihan Salam:

I don't believe that.

John Donvan:

Let me bring in a number to you, Bill de Blasio, the, uh, Wall Street Journal data published in, um, last month re: back to December 2022, unemployment rate in the State of- State of New York, 4.3%, versus Florida's 2.5%, which seems to lend ammunition to the point that Reihan is making in terms of, uh, opportunity in the workforce.

Bill de Blasio:

So, look, first of all, the three sectors that Reihan mentioned, retial is in crisis all over this country. Uh, I think new solutions will be found, but it's been in crisis for years, even pre-pandemic, the pandemic, uh, intensified it. Construction obviously was affected deeply by the pandemic, but we're seeing plenty of new construction now in New York, you're gonna see a lot more. Uh, when you think about the types of industries here, hospitality? For God's sake, what was hit harder by the pandemic, and we were the epicenter, and yet 57 million tourists last year, we will surpass our record of 67 million most likely in the next two years. So the problem with the whole argument is it misunderstands our resiliency.

Reihan Salam:

But- but what- but what if you live Upstate? What if you're in Rochester? What if you're in Utica or Syracuse? That's, you're not getting those tourists.

Bill de Blasio:

That's, there's unfortunately a lot of truth in that, not all places, you're- you're getting them in some places. But look, I think Upstate has real challenges, I don't wanna sugarcoat that. I- I do think, again, let's put this is national context, all of the big powerhouse industrial cities, uh, that pre-World War II were booming, including places like Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, uh, all of them suffered. All of the, uh, quote, unquote, Rust Belt suffered.

New York State, Upstate New York, deserves a lot more support from our state government, from our federal government, to make a transition, because they have fantastic universities, fantastic hospitals, uh, some extraordinary corporations that have been there a long time. There's plenty of opportunity that can be created in Upstate New York. The past 50 to 75 years-

Reihan Salam:

Okay, but John, I- I [inaudible

]-

John Donvan:

[inaudible

].

Reihan Salam:

I hear the argument for another decade.

John Donvan:

What-

Reihan Salam:

Because, by the way, those are all sectors that, you know, they've been impacted, but New York City and New York State are lagging the national recovery in all of those areas.

John Donvan:

All right, uh, another- another state policy I'd like to ask you to take on, Reihan, and- and bring it into the conversation, is just income tax. So, um, uh, New York State has an income tax rate of 10.9% at the state level, New York City adds to that so it comes up to 14.8%. Versus a state tax, income tax rate in Florida of zero. Is that part of the argument that you're making why Florida has, is kinda doing it right vis à vis New York?

Reihan Salam:

Uh, you know, honestly, uh, I could make that argument, but I think that I don't even have to (laughing), because actually, when you're looking at every other issue, uh, you know, the kind of edge, uh, that Florida has over us is so significant. But I will say that New York State and local revenues and spending per resident were around $20,000 in 2019. They've since ballooned, they've since grown, uh, quite a bit. That's more than double Florida's figure of $9,300.

Uh, now, if you're looking at service quality, we talked about it before, when you're looking at basics of reading and math for fourth graders, there is just a dramatic, dramatic difference. Uh, there are some services in New York that, you know, I'm incredibly proud of. Uh, I'm a son of public employees (laughing), uh, you know, I'm someone who really does believe that there are a lot of conscientious, hardworking, uh, public servants in this city and in this state. Proud of them.

But it's also the case that when you look at the jobs recovery, we have not had a private sector jobs recovery, we have had a public sector jobs recovery. And the problem is that if we want to pay people well in the public sector, we need to have a productive economy that's throwing off revenue. I might favor a different tax system, but, you know, the truth is that really high taxes aren't what driving out households from this state. There are a lot of people who would be willing to pay that, uh, the biggest problem are the kind of deeper pathologies of policymaking in New York State.

So, uh, you know, again, I certainly think lower taxes as a general matter are a good thing, but, you know, certainly you can make the case that high taxes and high quality services are a great, great mix. The problem is that in New York State right now, what we have are high taxes and quite low quality services for many of the most critical essential services, and that's a big problem.

Bill de Blasio:

Reihan, respectfully, I- I just don't think you are, maybe you don't, you haven't experienced it, maybe you don't see it, maybe it's ideologically, uh, different for you.

Reihan Salam:

(laughs).

Bill de Blasio:

Okay, so what do we have? I said the best police force in the country, the best fire department in the country. We have the best health apparatus in the entire country between our public hospitals, our health department, our private voluntary hospitals. We are unsurpassed in this country in healthcare. For people of all economic levels. Uh, we have a variety of th-

John Donvan:

Can- can I just ask you, by- by what metric, by what's available or by outcomes?

Bill de Blasio:

I- I'm not ever going to tell you, John, I have the perfect outcomes statistics, so what I can tell you is what's available. We provide healthcare for anyone and everyone on a quality level. In fact, in my administration, we made a decision that any New Yorker who could not legally get insurance still could get direct healthcare on a systematic basis from our public hospitals and clinics, even undocumented immigrants. That is a compassionate, inclusive society that keeps people healthy. Florida doesn't do that.

John Donvan:

I wanna move into a new phase of the conversation here. I wanna introduce, um, a group of journalists who have, uh, agreed to come into the conversation and move things forward with, uh, questions that come from their experience covering both New York and Florida. And the first one up is Emma Fitzsimmons of the New York Times. Thank you so much for joining us, and come on in with your question.

Emma Fitzsimmons:

Thank you for having me. Um, so mayor, as you know, I have two young sons, um, one is hopefully starting 3-K For All this year. Um, that program and universal pre-K are a major reason for families to stay in New York City. So I'm curious, are you concerned that Mayor Adams is making 3-K less of a priority? Could that hurt the livability and affordability of New York City? And then, what does Florida have to offer for families similarly.

Bill de Blasio:

I appreciate your- your focus on an issue I love dearly. We know, and we've seen it in- in so many instances, that providing a full day, high quality, uh, pre-K originally, and now almost universal 3-K, uh, is one of the things that allows people of all income levels to be here, stay here, thrive here. And we know that is the kind of generous, compassionate service that is not the norm in Florida. We also know that our sense of quality that we bring to our public commitments is not always shared by other states.

So I think it's very fair to say that New York had such amazing advantages before pre-K and 3-K, we have literally added almost two full grades to our public schools in a matter of a few years. That would never happen in Florida, because they don't believe in that kind of, uh, certainly the current government at least in Florida doesn't believe in that kind of investment.

Uh, so I think if we're talking about a livable city, an affordable city, there are many factors. Providing for young families in this generous, inclusive way, literally for everyone, is a tremendous favor, uh, factor and favor of New York City. The values part is to make sure that everyone starts at the same starting line, everyone has opportunity, whether it is that immigrant family that's striving, uh, that's starting with very little, whether it is someone who's in the middle class and trying to stay here, everyone has the same opportunity.

John Donvan:

More from Open to Debate when we return. Welcome back, I'm John Donvan and this is Open to Debate. Let's jump right back into our discussion.

Bill de Blasio:

Beyond that strategically, it was quite clear this was a way to address, uh, the fact. I, of course, I spoke in- incessantly about affordability problems, including in my campaign in 2013, and my answer was raise wages, raise benefits, provide more direct services like pre-K, 3-K, afterschool, which we proceeded to do. It lifts an economic burden off of families, it allows so many family members, particularly women, to go back to the workforce. It allows people to take a massive expense off. There was a great tweet I saw last year-

John Donvan:

I- I- I have to-

Bill de Blasio:

So, but just very quickly, someone from-

John Donvan:

I have to... It's gotta be really quick, because I've gotta jump in interest of time.

Bill de Blasio:

Really quick. Someone from Seattle who thought they were gonna come to New York and pay more, they said, "When I factor in pre-K for my child, my cost of living is actually cheaper in New York than it was in Seattle."

John Donvan:

Thank you for being so quick, and Emma, thank you very much for your question. I wanna go now to Julia Marsh of Politico. Julia, thanks for joining us.

Julia Marsh:

I'd love to hear from both sides, um, why they think that, uh, this conversation usually focuses on the wealthy, and- and why have we actually not, uh, heard a lot about these so-called strivers, um, that are leaving?

John Donvan:

Um, Reihan, why don't you go first?

Reihan Salam:

Gosh, uh, I- I think you might wanna ask, uh, former mayor de Blasio about that, uh, because I think that the political discourse, uh, in New York City and New York State for a long time has really been pretty darned fixated on the top 0.01%. Uh, and, um, you know, I- I, and I think that that, uh, you know, is not, to my mind, uh, I think that there are a lot of kind of core challenges about the quality of life, uh, about whether or not working class and middle class New Yorkers are getting a fair shake. Um, you know, why it is that, uh, that actually you have seen this incredible domestic outmigration for so long.

Um, you know, my own view is that, uh, I don't think we should canonize and celebrate millionaires and billionaires necessarily (laughing), but I also think that when you have a highly productive place, uh, the power of economic agglomeration as such, uh, that, uh, you know, you wanna be a city that's kind of attractive to a wide range of people, whether they're really poor or really rich. Uh, I actually think that that diversity, uh, you know, the fact that you have a range of different lifestyle, uh, possibilities, uh, I think that that is a good and healthy mix.

The problem is that what New York City is doing right now is creating conditions that are tolerable for the ultra-rich but intolerable, uh, for lower income folks. And it could be, Julia, that the reason why we don't actually talk about, you know, working and middle class people is because, uh, the city has kind of taken them for granted, has dealt with so much outmigration of those folks for so long, and the tax base hasn't suffered and- and people have, you know, been just fine. Now, the tax base is under strain now that's changing a little bit, because you actually have some number of middle income, upper middle income families who are a core part of the city's tax base, who are, uh, you know, you do see some outmigration of those groups too.

But, you know, my personal view is that, um, the massive outmigration of working and middle class people is a massive catastrophe. And by the way, it actually makes the city less attractive to, uh, you know, these, uh, super, duper entrepreneur types as well.

John Donvan:

Julia, thank you for your question. I wanna go now to Jeff Coltin, who is a political reporter for City & State New York. Jeff, come on in.

Jeff Coltin:

Thank you for, uh, giving me some time to, uh, to ask. Uh, l- look, when we're talking about people moving to Florida instead of New York, or choosing Florida, are we wrong to assume that it has this much to do with politics and values, and isn't it just about, or- or cost, and it just about weather? I mean, Florida has always had, uh, better weather, it's warmer.

Um, but on the flip side, now we see video of Fort Lauderdale under water, uh, hurricanes seem to maybe be getting worse. Uh, is New York going to maybe gain back some of that, uh, ground?

John Donvan:

We hadn't gotten to the weather angle in any depth, so that's a really interesting filter for this. Um, uh, Bill, why don't you... You- you talked about how- how nice the weather is down there, but, uh, Jeff is suggesting maybe it's- it's, uh, diminishing returns for Florida?

Bill de Blasio:

First of all, I thank you, Jeff, for the common sense. Yes, I understand why some people, the- the number one factor might be weather, and that's human and that's normal, that's been particularly true, not- not a newsflash, that's been true for, uh, hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers who retire, for example.

But I do think you have to look at the whole picture of any place. Um, if you happen to have good weather today, will you have the same good weather tomorrow or will it be more extreme weather? If you happen to have in the past, perhaps, been a more open, uh, social environment but you become an increasingly closed environment, and- and, uh, negative and exclusionary environment, as the MAGA extremism of Florida is doing now, does the world change? And I think it does.

So each of these things is an evolution, but I agree with you. I mean, some of it is as simple as the larger movement over decades from all of the industrialized north to all of the Sun Belt. That is not something that a set of policies, uh, developed, because you can look across the industrialized north at all sorts of different policies, different states, different cities, people made a choice. But that choice may be a bit time limited, because unfortunately there are bigger factors that are happening in our climate that may cause people to have to reconsider that equation fundamentally.

John Donvan:

Reihan?

Reihan Salam:

So, John, when you're thinking about climate and being resilient to climate change, a really important thing is thinking about infrastructure costs. How good are we at executing on projects? How good are we at revamping, deploying new projects, and- and what have? That is absolutely essential.

The climate challenge is absolutely affecting Florida, but I've gotta tell you, it's also affecting New York City and many other cities as well. And when we have such an egregious, severe cost problem, the United States is already an extreme outlier when it comes to the cost of infrastructure. I recommend that everyone check out a report from NYU's Marron Institute on this.

But New York City is an outlier among outliers. Compared to London, compared to Paris, compared to Tokyo (laughing), there's zero comparison. These are places that have collective bargaining rights, these are places that are high cost places, these are places where they have complex infrastructure needs, they are democratic republics they have to be responsive to, and yet on issue after issue, New York City's infrastructure costs are eye wateringly high. This is a well-established fact (laughing).

So when it comes to actually adapting and changing, uh, what happens is you have New York City politicians go hat in hand to Washington, DC. That, uh, you know, basically, "Hey, our costs are obscenely high that we can't possibly afford to undertake these generational projects. Please give us the money." The cost overruns keep rolling in, but here's the problem. As New York State shrinks relative to Florida, your political clout diminishes as well. So actually, that problem of not actually being able to deploy infrastructure dollars thoughtfully, effectively, and efficiently becomes a bigger and bigger problem in a world where we all have to become more resilient.

John Donvan:

So what we need in this conversation is a voice from Florida, and we have that in Valerie Crowder, who is a political reporter with WFSU in Florida. So, thanks for joining the conversation.

Valerie Crowder:

Thank you so much for having me. My question is, uh, directed to you, Reihan. You mentioned that one of the reasons that you believe people are moving from New York to Florida is because of lower housing costs, specifically you mentioned the cities of Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Palm Beach County, but Florida is an affordable housing crisis, and that crisis spans the entire state, but is especially bad in those cities. Um, just some quick, uh, statistics here for you, the Florida Housing-

Reihan Salam:

I'm very glad you mentioned this, Valerie. Thank you.

Valerie Crowder:

Yes, yes. So the Florida Housing Coalition reports more than a million low income Floridians spend more than half of their household income on housing, and, um, an analysis from the University of Florida shows tens of thousands of Miami-Dade County residents who make the area median income or higher spend more than 30% of their household income on housing, which isn't considered affordable according to federal government standards.

So given this data, do you still believe that so-called strivers are moving to Florida for more affordable housing? And, if so, how do you square that with the state's affordable housing challenges?

Reihan Salam:

Valerie, I, uh, I wanna promise the audience that I did not bribe Valerie into asking me this question.

Valerie Crowder:

(laughs).

Reihan Salam:

So, actually, Florida just passed a bipartisan legislation, uh, called the Live Local Act that basically preempts, uh, a series of local land use regulations and takes a number of other steps as well. Some are recommendations coming from the political right, some kind of coming from the political left, uh, but it's amazing how broad the consensus was that the state needed to take some immediate action to address this housing crisis.

And by the way, you know, uh, to Valerie's point, part of the issue is that Florida is still a poorer state than New York, right? So it could be that you have lower housing prices, but they can still have a real bite on people's incomes. Uh, it's still drastically more affordable than New York, even when you're looking at it in relative terms, relative to local incomes.

But what you've seen is actually Florida lawmakers... Again, Republicans and Democrats, in a highly polarized political climate both in the state and in the nation, actually passing some pretty major legislation that, y- you know, a lot of policymakers, a lot of policy thinkers on the left and right think could make a real dent. In New York State (laughing), uh, Governor Hochul proposed some extremely modest, measured, incremental reforms, and what she's found is just intense, ferocious pushback from the folks who are supposed to be her allies in the state legislature.

So, you know, I'm not saying that Florida is perfect, uh, far from it. On that issue alone that's a really life-and-death issue for the state, uh, they've actually done something. And if you compare that to what's happening in Albany, um, I think it makes for a really striking contrast.

Bill de Blasio:

Let me, if I may, John, just really quickly-

John Donvan:

Sure.

Bill de Blasio:

... respond. First of all, I- I would- I would caution Reihan not to praise the political culture that in just a matter of days was able to pass a six-week abortion ban, uh, in addition to a number of other exclusionary pieces of legislative. So, you- you may think that this example of affordable housing, I'm not familiar with the details of that package, but it's some great example of bipartisanship in Florida, it may be one of the only examples. Unfortunately, the dominant strand in Florida is MAGA ex- extremism.

But when it comes to the question of how do you address affordability, it's interesting this dialogue, fr- from Reihan's point of view, has often been about the cost of housing, and that's a valid discussion. I wanna bring it back to one, raising wages and benefits, which New York keeps doing, city and state, and two, providing other support for people.

But what- what I'm trying to say is the State of New York, well, if you say, "Oh, they didn't do something," yeah, sure they did something. First of all, they strengthened rent protections for the 2.2 million people in those rent-stabilized apartments in New York City, 2.2 million people. Can't say that number enough times, a huge number of people benefited. But second, they raised the minimum wage to $15 a few years ago, and- and, you know, the states that have made the decision that it's important to give people a living wage, it's important to protect labor unions that protect workers' rights and wages and benefits, there's a whole host of things that we do in New York that are about ensuring that working people are respected.

John Donvan:

Thank you, Valerie, for your question. We're gonna move onto our closing round now, and our closing round, similar to our opening round, each of you makes a statement, but this is a closing statement and it will be briefer, uh, one to two minutes. Um, and Bill, since Reihan went first in our opening statements, you have the floor now to tell us one more time why you say Florida is not eating New York's lunch.

Bill de Blasio:

Thank you so much, John, and thank you for a f- fine job moderating this discussion. Uh, okay, what's- what's the reality? (laughs). The reality is Florida has made a choice. Florida has made a choice to exclude, Florida has made a choice that's not only bad for so many people, for women, for people from the LGBT community, for people who believe in freedom of expression and education that includes all different perspectives.

It's bad for business, just ask the folks at the Disney Corporation. Uh, how fascinating that the government of Florida has attacked one of their biggest employers. Well, there's gonna be ramifications for that when other employers say, "This is not a place for us."

But that's not even the thing that I wanna focus on, I wanna focus on a force more powerful, uh, than the State of Florida, more powerful than anything even in New York City, and that's Mother Nature. Jeff Coltin asked the question, and- and I wanna take the next step with that question. Unfortunately, and I feel bad for all of us, climate change is moving aggressively, it's gonna hurt us all, but it's gonna hurt Florida a lot more, and I don't say that with any joy, I say that with pain for our fellow Americans who are there. But the truth is this is going to be more and more of a drain on Florida, more and more of a challenge.

In fact, a recent study looked at the regions of the world that were most threatened by climate change based on recent UN data, and this study said that nine of top 10 were parts of coastal China, the tenth was Florida. In all the United States, by far the place that will suffer the most damage from climate change, where we see the horrible destruction of the hurricanes, we see the flooding. This is just the beginning.

When you ask the question, uh, it's colloquial, who's eating whose lunch, it really comes down to where do people wanna be, where do they have faith in the future? Well, the future unfortunately is not bright for Florida, and the fact... I hope and I pray the government of Florida will do so much more to address climate change. New York State has been a leader in that field, and needs to do more, but it has been a leader.

But right now, the truth is threats to Florida, the- the- the human-made threats coming out of their state government, are bad enough and will hinder Fl- uh, Florida's economic and social future. But the threat from Mother Nature is so much greater. We are a nation, we are- we are a- a part of our nation, we are a state and a city, we have problems, but we have been wonderfully insulated from most of the challenges of the climate crisis, thank God. We have an ample water supply, we have incredibly inherent strengths, lots of mass transit, the things that will make us strong even in a changing future.

So the future is with New York City, and I, I'll just finish by saying it's so interesting how people love to bet against New York City, they always lose. They always lose.

John Donvan:

Thank you, Bill. Now, Reihan, you have the final say here, it's your rebuttal, but, um, there's just a question that's kinda hanging out there, you appear to be committed to staying in New York, um, I just would like you to address that, and I can give you an extra 30 or 40 seconds to address that. Uh, I- I don't think it's impossible to do whatsoever, but, um, and you're a native New Yorker, but go for it. Here's your closing statement, please.

Reihan Salam:

It's pretty straightforward, my parents moved from Bangladesh to Brooklyn in the mid '70s. Uh, when I was growing up, uh, they worked four jobs between them, uh, and eventually saved enough money to buy a little house, uh, and it's helped them stay as older people in the city we love. If they did not own that house, uh, uh, uh, it- it- it's not at all clear to me that- that they could have done that.

And if a similar family moved to Brooklyn right now, they would struggle to afford the rent in a safe neighborhood, let alone save enough money to buy a house and build a little wealth, and get a little bit further ahead and help their kids do the same thing. That's not because they work any less hard, I promise you that's not true. I know a lot of these people. It's because New York is puling up the ladder of opportunity, and the truth is that family would be better off moving to Florida.

So if you wanna know why I'm still here, it's because I love New York, I love living in a big, dense city, but what I see is that the city of opportunity, the city where people are rubbing shoulders, whether you're working class, you're on the subway together, that's a city that I believe in and love, and that city is being drained away by policies that are pulling up the ladder of opportunity.

Uh, just one thing that's really striking about this. Rents in the Five Boroughs are going up at the same time that population in four of those boroughs is going down, and the reason is actually quite perverse. Families that can afford it are taking on bigger apartments (laughing) so that they have a room, they can have a Zoom room. Okay? That's what's happening. Landlords are taking apartments off the market not because they're twirling their mustaches and they're evil people, it's because they've decided that new regulations that some are praising are actually making it unaffordable and risky to actually rent them out.

A huge number of people in this country are landlords, and in this city, it's about 7% of folks who file taxes. Uh, those are not all greedy corporate this or thats, a lot of them are people who are, see this as a way to build a little wealth, get a little bit further ahead, and they're scared to do that. And nobody is building the housing we depend on.

So basically, the city is gentrifying, and that's okay for me because my parents (laughing) were kinda working class, you know, kind of folks who fought their way into the middle class, and- and I kind of have a toehold here, okay? But if you look at the most vulnerable people, um, people who are homeless, they're not space aliens, uh, they're not, uh, criminals, they're not all addicts, these are people who need a place to live, and this is a state where homelessness has gone up by 45%, and in Florida it's gone down by 50%. You can criticize Florida in all sorts of ways, but Florida is stealing our thunder.

We should fight to reestablish New York as the opportunity state, but the first step is admitting that we have a problem. I don't have a problem, the former mayor doesn't have a problem, John, you don't have a problem, you have a- you have a beautiful room back there. Uh, but there are a lot of other people who wanna be here and they can't, and I'm gonna stay here until they turn the lights out to make sure that we become the opportunity state again.

John Donvan:

Thank you, Reihan. And that concludes our debate, the arguing portion of the program is over. I- I wanna thank the journalists who joined us, Emma and Julia and Jeff and Josh, for your questions. I also really wanna thank the two of our debaters, uh, Reihan and Bill, for- for the way that you conducted this debate. You did it with respect, with robust disagreement, but, um, with great, uh, uh, civility and- and good humor, and you shed some light. So I think that that's what our audience is looking for when they come to- to Open to Debate. They come with an open mind, and at least the two of you were listening to each other even if- if not agreeing, so you were open to debate. So I wanna thank you both for- for how you did this, and for doing it with us in the first place.

Reihan Salam:

Thank you very much, sir.

Bill de Blasio:

Thank you, John.

John Donvan:

And I wanna thank all of you for tuning in to this episode of Open to Debate. You know, as a nonprofit, our work to combat extreme polarization through civil and respectful debate is generously funded by listeners like you, by the Rosenkranz Foundation, and by supporters of Open to Debate. Open to Debate is also made possible by a generous grant from the Laura and Gary Lauder Venture Philanthropy Fund.

Robert Rosenkranz is our chairman, Clea Connor is our CEO, Lia Matthow is our Chief Content Officer, Julia Melfi is our Senior Producer, Marlette Sandoval is our Producer, Gabriella Mayer is our Editorial and Research Manager, Gabrielle Iannucelli is our Social Media and Digital Platforms Coordinator, Andrew Lipson is Head of Production, Max Fulton is our Production Coordinator, Damon Whittemore is our Engineer, Raven Baker is Events and Operations Manager, and I'm your host, John Donvan. We'll see you next time.